Today / Brazil - Serie D / Ferroviario vs Goiatuba EC

Ferroviario vs Goiatuba EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Round of 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 20:00

Ferroviario

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Goiatuba EC

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-19.0%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.2%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-18.2%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 69.0% 1.45 -27.6%

Draw 26.8% 29.4% 3.40 -5.3%

Away win 23.4% 13.3% 7.50 +45.3%

Over 2.5 43.6% 42.0% 2.38 +3.8%

Over 3.5 23.4% 22.2% 4.50 +3.2%

BTTS 48.5% 38.2% 2.62 +27.1%

Home O1.5 38.5% 54.6% 1.83 -29.5%

Away O1.5 20.1% 14.3% 7.00 +24.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviario1.4

Goiatuba EC0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIO · PPG 3.00

GOIATUBA EC · PPG 1.43

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviario (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -27.6%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.3%

Goiatuba EC (A) 23.4%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +45.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviario face Goiatuba EC in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviario a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Goiatuba EC 23%, so Ferroviario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ferroviario and 0.7 for Goiatuba EC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviario are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.43 for Goiatuba EC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +81.4%.

Ferroviario vs Goiatuba EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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