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Treze vs Sao Jose Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Round of 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 20:00

Treze

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sao Jose

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-18.8%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.5%1-111.8%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-17.9%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.6%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 52.6% 1.90 -6.3%

Draw 29.0% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

Away win 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Over 2.5 39.3% 38.2% 2.62 +3.0%

Over 3.5 19.7% 20.0% 5.00 -0.9%

BTTS 46.5% 44.4% 2.25 +4.6%

Home O1.5 38.5% 40.0% 2.50 -3.8%

Away O1.5 19.6% 22.2% 4.50 -7.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.5%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.5%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treze1.3

Sao Jose0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TREZE · PPG 2.00

SAO JOSE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Treze (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -6.3%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.5%

Sao Jose (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treze face Sao Jose in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treze a 49% chance, the draw 29% and Sao Jose 22%, so Treze are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Treze and 0.6 for Sao Jose (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treze are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Sao Jose. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.2%.

Treze vs Sao Jose Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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