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ASA vs Cianorte Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Round of 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 20:00

ASA

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cianorte

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.9%0-110.9%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.7%1-110.4%1-22.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.3%2-14.9%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.6%3-11.6%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 54.1% 1.85 -9.7%

Draw 31.3% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

Away win 19.9% 23.8% 4.20 -9.8%

Over 2.5 34.5% 38.2% 2.62 -9.6%

Over 3.5 13.4% 20.0% 5.00 -19.8%

BTTS 46.4% 40.0% 2.50 +16.0%

Home O1.5 34.3% 40.0% 2.50 -14.2%

Away O1.5 12.8% 20.0% 5.00 -21.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.4%

H 49% / xG 0.9-0.4 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.9%

#2 1–0 23.7%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ASA0.9

Cianorte0.4

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 13.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ASA · PPG 2.14

CIANORTE · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ASA (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -9.7%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.2%

Cianorte (A) 19.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

ASA face Cianorte in Brazil - Serie D on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ASA a 49% chance, the draw 31% and Cianorte 20%, so ASA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for ASA and 0.4 for Cianorte (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ASA are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.00 for Cianorte. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +16.0%.

ASA vs Cianorte Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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