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Bogota FC vs Patriotas Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

Bogota FC

PPG 1.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

Patriotas

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-113.1%0-24.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.4%1-113.0%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.6%2-16.4%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-12.1%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% — — —

Draw 31.8% — — —

Away win 25.5% — — —

Over 2.5 36.8% — — —

Over 3.5 17.9% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -57.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–0 17.4%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 13.1%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bogota FC1.0

Patriotas0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOGOTA FC · PPG 1.15

PATRIOTAS · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 1.74 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bogota FC (H) 42.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Patriotas (A) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bogota FC face Patriotas in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bogota FC a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Patriotas 26%, so Bogota FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bogota FC and 0.7 for Patriotas (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bogota FC are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.44 for Patriotas.

Bogota FC vs Patriotas Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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