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Real Santander vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 20:30

Real Santander

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barranquilla

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-111.0%0-28.5%0-34.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.3%2-16.6%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 42.6% 2.35 -25.5%

Draw 25.0% 30.3% 3.30 -10.5%

Away win 43.3% 37.0% 2.70 +16.9%

Over 2.5 53.7% 48.8% 2.05 +10.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 27.4% 3.65 +16.1%

BTTS 54.5% 56.5% 1.77 -3.5%

Home O1.5 30.2% 42.0% 2.38 -28.1%

Away O1.5 47.3% 38.2% 2.62 +23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -57.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.5%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 7.2%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Santander1.1

Barranquilla1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SANTANDER · PPG 0.78

BARRANQUILLA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Santander (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -25.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.5%

Barranquilla (A) 43.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Santander face Barranquilla in Colombia - Primera B on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Santander a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Barranquilla 43%, so Barranquilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Real Santander and 1.5 for Barranquilla (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Santander are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Barranquilla. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +23.9%.

Real Santander vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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