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Leones FC vs Real Soacha Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 23:00

Leones FC

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Soacha

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-116.1%0-28.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-113.3%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.2%2-15.5%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 42.0% 2.38 -25.0%

Draw 33.4% 33.9% 2.95 -1.5%

Away win 35.2% 33.9% 2.95 +3.8%

Over 2.5 38.3% 38.5% 2.60 -0.4%

Over 3.5 21.1% 22.2% 4.50 -3.0%

BTTS 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 35.7% 2.80 -15.4%

Away O1.5 33.1% 29.9% 3.35 +10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -57.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.7%

D 33% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones FC0.8

Real Soacha1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES FC · PPG 0.75

REAL SOACHA · PPG 0.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.23, combined xG 1.88 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leones FC (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -25.0%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -1.5%

Real Soacha (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones FC face Real Soacha in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones FC a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Real Soacha 35%, so Real Soacha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Leones FC and 1.1 for Real Soacha (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones FC are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.56 for Real Soacha. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Leones FC vs Real Soacha Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions