Today / Colombia - Primera B / Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC

Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 22:45

Real Cartagena

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bogota FC

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-18.3%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.8%1-112.2%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.0%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 66.7% 1.50 -27.0%

Draw 25.6% 26.3% 3.80 -1.6%

Away win 25.7% 16.7% 6.00 +32.5%

Over 2.5 49.9% 51.8% 1.93 -3.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%

BTTS 53.1% 51.3% 1.95 +3.5%

Home O1.5 45.1% 59.9% 1.67 -24.7%

Away O1.5 21.1% 22.2% 4.50 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -57.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Cartagena1.5

Bogota FC0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL CARTAGENA · PPG 2.00

BOGOTA FC · PPG 1.36

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Cartagena (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -27.0%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.6%

Bogota FC (A) 25.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Cartagena face Bogota FC in Colombia - Primera B on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Cartagena a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Bogota FC 26%, so Real Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real Cartagena and 0.8 for Bogota FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Cartagena are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.36 for Bogota FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.9%.

Real Cartagena vs Bogota FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions