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Patriotas vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Patriotas

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barranquilla

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.6%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.5%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% — — —

Draw 26.9% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 32.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -57.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patriotas1.4

Barranquilla1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRIOTAS · PPG 2.12

BARRANQUILLA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Patriotas (H) 48.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Barranquilla (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Patriotas face Barranquilla in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patriotas a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Barranquilla 24%, so Patriotas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Patriotas and 1.0 for Barranquilla (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patriotas are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.00 for Barranquilla.

Patriotas vs Barranquilla Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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