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Patriotas vs Orsomarso Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 23:00

Patriotas

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orsomarso

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-110.6%0-24.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.8%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-17.7%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 41.8% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 31.9% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -57.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 17.1%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patriotas1.2

Orsomarso0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRIOTAS · PPG 2.12

ORSOMARSO · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Patriotas (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Orsomarso (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Patriotas face Orsomarso in Colombia - Primera B on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patriotas a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Orsomarso 23%, so Patriotas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Patriotas and 0.7 for Orsomarso (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patriotas are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.11 for Orsomarso.

Patriotas vs Orsomarso Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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