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Popayan vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 00:45

Popayan

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Magdalena

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-114.8%0-210.5%0-34.9%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.5%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.7%2-15.3%2-23.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.0%3-11.5%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 27.4% 3.65 +2.4%

Draw 28.2% 29.4% 3.40 -2.5%

Away win 43.3% 52.6% 1.90 -17.7%

Over 2.5 44.9% 40.8% 2.45 +10.0%

Over 3.5 26.0% 21.1% 4.75 +14.1%

BTTS 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 23.8% 4.20 +26.8%

Away O1.5 42.6% 44.4% 2.25 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -57.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob47.7%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 14.8%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 0–2 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Popayan0.8

Union Magdalena1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

POPAYAN · PPG 1.00

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 1.82

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Popayan (H) 28.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +2.4%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.5%

Union Magdalena (A) 43.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Popayan face Union Magdalena in Colombia - Primera B on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Popayan a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Union Magdalena 43%, so Union Magdalena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Popayan and 1.4 for Union Magdalena (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Popayan are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.82 for Union Magdalena. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +26.8%.

Popayan vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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