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Fenix vs La Luz Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 13 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Fenix

PPG 2.10 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

La Luz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-17.4%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-111.2%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.4%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.2%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.0% — — —

BTTS 45.8% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.8%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0✓ 11.8%

#3 2–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fenix1.5

La Luz0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FENIX · PPG 2.10

LA LUZ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fenix (H) 52.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

La Luz (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fenix face La Luz in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fenix a 53% chance, the draw 27% and La Luz 21%, so Fenix are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fenix and 0.6 for La Luz (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fenix are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.00 for La Luz. This match finished 0-0.

Fenix vs La Luz Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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