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Uruguay Montevideo vs Paysandu Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 13 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Uruguay Montevideo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Paysandu

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.5%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-111.9%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.5%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 26.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 47.5% — — —

Away O1.5 34.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0✓ 11.2%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uruguay Montevideo1.6

Paysandu1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

URUGUAY MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.33

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Uruguay Montevideo (H) 49.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paysandu (A) 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Uruguay Montevideo face Paysandu in Uruguay - Segunda División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uruguay Montevideo a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Paysandu 26%, so Uruguay Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Uruguay Montevideo and 1.1 for Paysandu (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uruguay Montevideo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.11 for Paysandu. This match finished 1-0.

Uruguay Montevideo vs Paysandu Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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