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Politehnica UTM vs CSF Bălți Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:00

Politehnica UTM

PPG 1.19 · HOME

UPCOMING

CSF Bălți

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.1%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.6%1-110.9%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.8%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -47.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Politehnica UTM1.8

CSF Bălți1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

POLITEHNICA UTM · PPG 1.19

CSF BĂLȚI · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Politehnica UTM (H) 50.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CSF Bălți (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Politehnica UTM face CSF Bălți in Moldova - Super Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Politehnica UTM a 51% chance, the draw 25% and CSF Bălți 24%, so Politehnica UTM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Politehnica UTM and 1.1 for CSF Bălți (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Politehnica UTM are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.91 for CSF Bălți.

Politehnica UTM vs CSF Bălți Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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