Today / Moldova - Super Liga / Politehnica UTM vs Zimbru

Politehnica UTM vs Zimbru Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Regular Season - 5 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Politehnica UTM

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zimbru

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-16.9%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-111.2%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.1%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.8%3-14.9%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Politehnica UTM1.6

Zimbru0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POLITEHNICA UTM · PPG 1.00

ZIMBRU · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Politehnica UTM (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Zimbru (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Politehnica UTM face Zimbru in Moldova - Super Liga on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Politehnica UTM a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Zimbru 20%, so Politehnica UTM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Politehnica UTM and 0.7 for Zimbru (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Politehnica UTM are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Zimbru.

Politehnica UTM vs Zimbru Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Moldova - Super Liga Predictions