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Politehnica UTM vs Milsami Orhei Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Politehnica UTM

PPG 1.10 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Milsami Orhei

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.1%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.3%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.2%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 37.0% 2.70 +36.1%

Draw 25.2% 29.4% 3.40 -8.6%

Away win 24.3% 44.4% 2.25 -27.2%

Over 2.5 50.8% 55.6% 1.80 -8.6%

Over 3.5 29.7% 35.3% 2.83 -9.6%

BTTS 53.1% 62.9% 1.59 -15.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Away O1.5 33.8% 46.7% 2.14 -27.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -47.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Politehnica UTM1.5

Milsami Orhei1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POLITEHNICA UTM · PPG 1.10

MILSAMI ORHEI · PPG 1.03

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Politehnica UTM (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +36.1%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.6%

Milsami Orhei (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Politehnica UTM face Milsami Orhei in Moldova - Super Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Politehnica UTM a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Milsami Orhei 24%, so Politehnica UTM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Politehnica UTM and 1.1 for Milsami Orhei (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Politehnica UTM are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 1.03 for Milsami Orhei. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Politehnica UTM vs Milsami Orhei Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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