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Zimbru vs Petrocub Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 17:00

Zimbru

PPG 1.95 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Petrocub

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.1%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.7%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 52.4% 1.91 -11.4%

Draw 27.6% 30.3% 3.30 -5.3%

Away win 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -8.5%

Over 2.5 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 30.5% 3.28 -3.3%

BTTS 49.9% 57.5% 1.74 -13.2%

Home O1.5 43.9% 48.3% 2.07 -9.1%

Away O1.5 34.2% 33.6% 2.98 +1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -47.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zimbru1.4

Petrocub1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZIMBRU · PPG 1.95

PETROCUB · PPG 1.52

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zimbru (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -11.4%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.3%

Petrocub (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zimbru face Petrocub in Moldova - Super Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zimbru a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Petrocub 26%, so Zimbru are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zimbru and 1.1 for Petrocub (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zimbru are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.52 for Petrocub. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Zimbru vs Petrocub Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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