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Kara-Balta vs Bars Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:30

Kara-Balta

PPG 0.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bars

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.31 for Away, form 0.30 vs 1.50

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.3%0-25.8%0-36.7%0-4+14.2%1 1-01.1%1-13.9%1-26.8%1-37.9%1-4+16.6%2 2-00.7%2-12.3%2-24.0%2-34.6%2-4+9.7%3 3-00.3%3-10.9%3-21.5%3-31.8%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 16.3% — — —

Away win 69.9% — — —

Over 2.5 74.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.6% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 31.3% — — —

Away O1.5 86.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob63.3%

A 70% / xG 1.2-3.5 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.9%

#2 1–4 6.8%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 0–3 6.7%

#5 0–4 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kara-Balta1.2

Bars3.5

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KARA-BALTA · PPG 0.30

BARS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.31 for Away, form 0.30 vs 1.50

Win probability 1X2

Kara-Balta (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bars (A) 69.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kara-Balta face Bars in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kara-Balta a 14% chance, the draw 16% and Bars 70%, so Bars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kara-Balta and 3.5 for Bars (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kara-Balta are averaging 0.30 points per game versus 1.50 for Bars.

Kara-Balta vs Bars Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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