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Neftchi vs Abdish-Ata Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 14:30

Neftchi

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Abdish-Ata

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-15.5%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-110.3%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.7%3-16.0%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 19.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 10.3%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftchi1.9

Abdish-Ata0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCHI · PPG 1.11

ABDISH-ATA · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Neftchi (H) 55.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Abdish-Ata (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftchi face Abdish-Ata in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftchi a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Abdish-Ata 22%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Neftchi and 0.8 for Abdish-Ata (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftchi are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.75 for Abdish-Ata.

Neftchi vs Abdish-Ata Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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