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Ilbirs vs Dordoi Bishkek Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:30

Ilbirs

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dordoi Bishkek

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.1%0-27.6%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.1%1-112.1%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.8%2-17.2%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.2% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 41.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 31.7% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.5%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilbirs1.2

Dordoi Bishkek1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ILBIRS · PPG 1.20

DORDOI BISHKEK · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ilbirs (H) 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dordoi Bishkek (A) 41.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilbirs face Dordoi Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilbirs a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Dordoi Bishkek 42%, so Dordoi Bishkek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ilbirs and 1.5 for Dordoi Bishkek (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilbirs are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Dordoi Bishkek.

Ilbirs vs Dordoi Bishkek Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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