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Ozgon vs OshMU Aldier Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 14:30

Ozgon

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

OshMU Aldier

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.0%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.8%1-18.9%1-24.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.3%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-16.7%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 62.3% — — —

Over 3.5 38.7% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 31.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ozgon2.2

OshMU Aldier1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OZGON · PPG 2.12

OSHMU ALDIER · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ozgon (H) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

OshMU Aldier (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ozgon face OshMU Aldier in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ozgon a 55% chance, the draw 23% and OshMU Aldier 22%, so Ozgon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Ozgon and 1.0 for OshMU Aldier (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ozgon are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.44 for OshMU Aldier.

Ozgon vs OshMU Aldier Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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