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Abdish-Ata vs Kara-Balta Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:30

Abdish-Ata

PPG 0.78 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kara-Balta

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.2%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.2%1-110.1%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.5%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.0%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 38.6% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 30.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Abdish-Ata2.0

Kara-Balta1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ABDISH-ATA · PPG 0.78

KARA-BALTA · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Abdish-Ata (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kara-Balta (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Abdish-Ata face Kara-Balta in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Abdish-Ata a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Kara-Balta 21%, so Abdish-Ata are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Abdish-Ata and 1.0 for Kara-Balta (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Abdish-Ata are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.14 for Kara-Balta. This match finished 2-3.

Abdish-Ata vs Kara-Balta Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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