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Toktogul vs Alga Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 14:30

Toktogul

PPG 0.88 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Alga

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-111.7%0-211.7%0-37.8%0-4+6.1%1 1-04.9%1-19.9%1-29.8%1-36.5%1-4+5.1%2 2-02.1%2-14.1%2-24.1%2-32.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 56.0% — — —

Over 2.5 57.1% — — —

Over 3.5 33.9% — — —

BTTS 53.3% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob53.3%

A 56% / xG 0.8-2.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toktogul0.8

Alga2.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TOKTOGUL · PPG 0.88

ALGA · PPG 2.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.15 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Toktogul (H) 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alga (A) 56.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Toktogul face Alga in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toktogul a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Alga 56%, so Alga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Toktogul and 2.0 for Alga (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toktogul are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 2.12 for Alga. This match finished 1-0.

Toktogul vs Alga Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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