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Ilbirs vs Asia Talas Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 14:30

Ilbirs

PPG 1.22 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Asia Talas

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.6%0-26.8%0-34.6%0-4+3.8%1 1-04.5%1-19.2%1-29.4%1-36.4%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.1%2-16.4%2-26.5%2-34.4%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-23.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 45.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.0% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 40.5% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.6%

A 45% / xG 1.4-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilbirs1.4

Asia Talas2.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ILBIRS · PPG 1.22

ASIA TALAS · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.65 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ilbirs (H) 31.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Asia Talas (A) 45.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilbirs face Asia Talas in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilbirs a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Asia Talas 45%, so Asia Talas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ilbirs and 2.0 for Asia Talas (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilbirs are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.78 for Asia Talas. This match finished 1-1.

Ilbirs vs Asia Talas Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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