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OshMU Aldier vs Alay Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:30

OshMU Aldier

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Alay

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.9%0-27.6%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.8%1-112.0%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.2%2-25.5%2-32.8%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 43.5% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.8% — — —

BTTS 59.9% — — —

Home O1.5 34.0% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.9%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OshMU Aldier1.2

Alay1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OSHMU ALDIER · PPG 1.25

ALAY · PPG 1.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

OshMU Aldier (H) 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alay (A) 43.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

OshMU Aldier face Alay in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OshMU Aldier a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Alay 44%, so Alay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for OshMU Aldier and 1.5 for Alay (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OshMU Aldier are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.89 for Alay. This match finished 1-3.

OshMU Aldier vs Alay Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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