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Toktogul vs Ozgon Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 14:00

Toktogul

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ozgon

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -1.28 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-111.7%0-212.2%0-38.5%0-4+7.1%1 1-04.5%1-19.3%1-29.7%1-36.7%1-4+5.7%2 2-01.8%2-13.7%2-23.9%2-32.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-21.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.0% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 63.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 54.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob53.1%

A 63% / xG 0.8-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.2%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–3 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toktogul0.8

Ozgon2.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TOKTOGUL · PPG 0.57

OZGON · PPG 2.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.28 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Toktogul (H) 14.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ozgon (A) 63.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Toktogul face Ozgon in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toktogul a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Ozgon 63%, so Ozgon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Toktogul and 2.1 for Ozgon (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toktogul are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 2.11 for Ozgon.

Toktogul vs Ozgon Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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