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T. de Cordoba vs D. Riestra Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:30

T. de Cordoba

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Riestra

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDD

// Model verdict

Home 57% chance

Model probability 66.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+26.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.4%0-13.3%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-031.6%1-14.0%1-20.3%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.6%2-12.5%2-20.2%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.1%3-11.0%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 52.6% 1.90 +26.5%

Draw 29.6% 34.0% 2.94 -13.0%

Away win 3.8% 20.4% 4.90 -81.4%

Over 2.5 15.9% 33.3% 3.00 -52.3%

Over 3.5 5.0% 16.0% 6.25 -68.8%

BTTS 8.6% 40.8% 2.45 -78.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.1 BTTS prob8.6%

H 67% / xG 1.2-0.1 / U2.5 16% / NoBTTS 9%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 31.6%

#2 0–0 25.4%

#3 2–0✓ 19.6%

#4 3–0 8.1%

#5 1–1 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. de Cordoba1.2

D. Riestra0.1

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 15.9% · O3.5 PROB 5.0%

Form & verdict PPG

T. DE CORDOBA · PPG 1.67

D. RIESTRA · PPG 0.33

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

57%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

T. de Cordoba (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +26.5%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -13.0%

D. Riestra (A) 3.8%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -81.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

T. de Cordoba face D. Riestra in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. de Cordoba a 67% chance, the draw 30% and D. Riestra 4%, so T. de Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for T. de Cordoba and 0.1 for D. Riestra (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 16% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 9% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. de Cordoba are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for D. Riestra. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.5%. This match finished 2-0.

T. de Cordoba vs D. Riestra Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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