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Mārupe vs Super Nova 2 Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Mārupe

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Super Nova 2

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.9%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.2%1-110.3%1-27.4%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.7%3-15.4%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 33.5% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.4% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mārupe1.8

Super Nova 21.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MĀRUPE · PPG 1.12

SUPER NOVA 2 · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mārupe (H) 43.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Super Nova 2 (A) 33.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mārupe face Super Nova 2 in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mārupe a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Super Nova 2 34%, so Mārupe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mārupe and 1.4 for Super Nova 2 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mārupe are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.25 for Super Nova 2.

Mārupe vs Super Nova 2 Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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