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JFK Ventspils vs Smiltene Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 12:00

JFK Ventspils

PPG 0.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Smiltene

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.6%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.9%1-110.6%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.8%3-16.2%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.4%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 53.6% — — —

Over 3.5 32.5% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JFK Ventspils1.9

Smiltene1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JFK VENTSPILS · PPG 0.33

SMILTENE · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

JFK Ventspils (H) 51.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Smiltene (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

JFK Ventspils face Smiltene in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JFK Ventspils a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Smiltene 24%, so JFK Ventspils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for JFK Ventspils and 1.1 for Smiltene (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JFK Ventspils are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.29 for Smiltene.

JFK Ventspils vs Smiltene Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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