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Metta / LU vs Rīgas FS II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:30

Metta / LU

PPG 2.62 · HOME

12 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rīgas FS II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.9% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.3%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.8%1-11.5%1-20.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-04.2%2-13.5%2-21.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-15.6%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-030.7%4+-125.3%4+-210.5%4+-32.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.1% 97.1% 1.03 -17.5%

Draw 11.7% 5.9% 17.00 +59.3%

Away win 8.2% 3.8% 26.00 +67.9%

Over 2.5 80.9% 85.5% 1.17 -5.3%

Over 3.5 63.5% 73.0% 1.37 -13.0%

BTTS 59.9% 45.5% 2.20 +31.8%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 12-1

xG (home)4.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob59.9%

H 80% / xG 4.8-0.8 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 8.0%

#2 5–0 7.6%

#3 3–0 6.7%

#4 4–1 6.6%

#5 5–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metta / LU4.8

Rīgas FS II0.8

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 63.5%

Form & verdict PPG

METTA / LU · PPG 2.62

RĪGAS FS II · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.94 for Home, form 2.62 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Metta / LU (H) 80.1%

ODDS 1.03 · IMPLIED 97.1% EV -17.5%

Draw 11.7%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +59.3%

Rīgas FS II (A) 8.2%

ODDS 26.00 · IMPLIED 3.8% EV +67.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metta / LU face Rīgas FS II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metta / LU a 80% chance, the draw 12% and Rīgas FS II 8%, so Metta / LU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.8 for Metta / LU and 0.8 for Rīgas FS II (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metta / LU are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.00 for Rīgas FS II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +172.6%. This match finished 12-1.

Metta / LU vs Rīgas FS II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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