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Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 15:30

Tukums II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

JDFS Alberts

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.11 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.2%0-25.5%0-34.8%0-4+5.9%1 1-02.4%1-16.3%1-28.3%1-37.3%1-4+9.0%2 2-01.8%2-14.8%2-26.3%2-35.5%2-4+6.8%3 3-00.9%3-12.4%3-23.2%3-32.8%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 54.4% — — —

Over 2.5 67.6% — — —

Over 3.5 48.3% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 84%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.5%

A 54% / xG 1.5-2.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.3%

#2 1–3 7.3%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums II1.5

JDFS Alberts2.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS II · PPG 1.00

JDFS ALBERTS · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.11 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Tukums II (H) 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

JDFS Alberts (A) 54.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums II face JDFS Alberts in Latvia - 1. Liga on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums II a 25% chance, the draw 21% and JDFS Alberts 54%, so JDFS Alberts are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tukums II and 2.6 for JDFS Alberts (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.43 for JDFS Alberts.

Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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