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JDFS Alberts vs Riga FC II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:30

JDFS Alberts

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Riga FC II

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.4%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.0%1-18.1%1-24.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.5%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-17.8%4+-24.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 59.9% 1.67 -7.8%

Draw 22.0% 25.0% 4.00 -7.2%

Away win 22.8% 26.7% 3.75 -8.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 42.3% 45.5% 2.20 -6.9%

BTTS 61.8% 65.8% 1.52 -6.1%

Home O1.5 62.4% 64.9% 1.54 -3.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 40.3% 2.48 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.8%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0✓ 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JDFS Alberts2.4

Riga FC II1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JDFS ALBERTS · PPG 2.00

RIGA FC II · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

JDFS Alberts (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -7.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.2%

Riga FC II (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

JDFS Alberts face Riga FC II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JDFS Alberts a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Riga FC II 23%, so JDFS Alberts are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for JDFS Alberts and 1.2 for Riga FC II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JDFS Alberts are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.57 for Riga FC II. This match finished 2-0.

JDFS Alberts vs Riga FC II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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