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Smiltene vs Valmiera / BSS Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Smiltene

PPG 0.71 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Valmiera / BSS

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.21 for Away, form 0.71 vs 2.44

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-15.4%0-28.4%0-38.8%0-4+15.2%1 1-01.6%1-15.0%1-27.8%1-38.2%1-4+14.1%2 2-00.7%2-12.3%2-23.6%2-33.8%2-4+6.5%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.1%3-31.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 7.7% 13.00 +47.6%

Draw 16.7% 11.1% 9.00 +30.2%

Away win 69.5% 90.9% 1.10 -23.5%

Over 2.5 67.6% 76.9% 1.30 -12.1%

Over 3.5 47.4% 57.8% 1.73 -18.0%

BTTS 59.9% 47.6% 2.10 +25.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 70.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob59.9%

A 70% / xG 0.9-3.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.8%

#2 0–2 8.4%

#3 1–3 8.2%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 0–4 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smiltene0.9

Valmiera / BSS3.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SMILTENE · PPG 0.71

VALMIERA / BSS · PPG 2.44

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.21 for Away, form 0.71 vs 2.44

Win probability 1X2

Smiltene (H) 13.8%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +47.6%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +30.2%

Valmiera / BSS (A) 69.5%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Smiltene face Valmiera / BSS in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smiltene a 14% chance, the draw 17% and Valmiera / BSS 70%, so Valmiera / BSS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Smiltene and 3.1 for Valmiera / BSS (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smiltene are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 2.44 for Valmiera / BSS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +161.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Smiltene vs Valmiera / BSS Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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