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Rosario Central vs Sarmiento Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 23:30

Rosario Central

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sarmiento

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-15.0%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.0%1-19.0%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.3%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.8%3-14.9%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-13.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.4% 66.7% 1.50 +4.1%

Draw 21.1% 26.7% 3.75 -20.9%

Away win 9.5% 13.5% 7.40 -29.7%

Over 2.5 40.6% 45.5% 2.20 -10.7%

Over 3.5 20.2% 23.8% 4.20 -15.2%

BTTS 32.8% 44.4% 2.25 -26.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob32.8%

H 69% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 2–0 16.3%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 3–0 9.8%

#5 1–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosario Central1.8

Sarmiento0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 1.67

SARMIENTO · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.67), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Rosario Central (H) 69.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +4.1%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -20.9%

Sarmiento (A) 9.5%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV -29.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosario Central face Sarmiento in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosario Central a 69% chance, the draw 21% and Sarmiento 10%, so Rosario Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Rosario Central and 0.5 for Sarmiento (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosario Central are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.50 for Sarmiento. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Rosario Central vs Sarmiento Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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