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Pogoń Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:30

Pogoń Siedlce

PPG 1.04 · HOME

UPCOMING

Polonia Warszawa

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.8%0-27.4%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.2%1-112.6%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.3%2-17.4%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.1%3-12.9%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 22.7% 4.40 +55.8%

Draw 28.2% 28.6% 3.50 -0.8%

Away win 36.3% 59.9% 1.67 -39.4%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 31.1% 30.8% 3.25 +1.1%

Away O1.5 42.6% 59.9% 1.67 -28.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.1%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogoń Siedlce1.2

Polonia Warszawa1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POGOŃ SIEDLCE · PPG 1.04

POLONIA WARSZAWA · PPG 1.81

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pogoń Siedlce (H) 35.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +55.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.8%

Polonia Warszawa (A) 36.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -39.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogoń Siedlce face Polonia Warszawa in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogoń Siedlce a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Polonia Warszawa 36%, so Polonia Warszawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.4 for Polonia Warszawa (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogoń Siedlce are averaging 1.04 points per game versus 1.81 for Polonia Warszawa. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +38.4%.

Pogoń Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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