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Råde vs Drøbak / Frogn Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Råde

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Drøbak / Frogn

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.63 for Home, form 2.29 vs 1.12 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.1%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.8%1-15.9%1-23.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.8%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-111.5%4+-27.1%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% — — —

Draw 15.6% — — —

Away win 20.9% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 78.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.3%

H 64% / xG 2.9-1.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 1–1 5.9%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Råde2.9

Drøbak / Frogn1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RÅDE · PPG 2.29

DRØBAK / FROGN · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.63 for Home, form 2.29 vs 1.12 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Råde (H) 63.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Drøbak / Frogn (A) 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Råde face Drøbak / Frogn in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Råde a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Drøbak / Frogn 21%, so Råde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Råde and 1.2 for Drøbak / Frogn (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Råde are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.12 for Drøbak / Frogn.

Råde vs Drøbak / Frogn Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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