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Colo-Colo vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 22:30

Colo-Colo

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Palestino

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 85.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5% — a clear edge.

+44.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-11.7%0-20.4%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.7%1-14.8%1-21.0%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.0%2-16.6%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.7%3-16.0%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-019.6%4+-18.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 85.9% 59.5% 1.68 +44.3%

Draw 10.6% 27.4% 3.65 -61.3%

Away win 3.5% 21.7% 4.60 -83.9%

Over 2.5 61.2% 55.6% 1.80 +10.2%

Over 3.5 38.9% 33.3% 3.00 +16.7%

BTTS 31.6% 57.8% 1.73 -45.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob31.6%

H 86% / xG 2.7-0.4 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.0%

#2 3–0 14.7%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 4–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colo-Colo2.7

Palestino0.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COLO-COLO · PPG 2.25

PALESTINO · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Colo-Colo (H) 85.9%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +44.3%

Draw 10.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -61.3%

Palestino (A) 3.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -83.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colo-Colo face Palestino in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colo-Colo a 86% chance, the draw 11% and Palestino 4%, so Colo-Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Colo-Colo and 0.4 for Palestino (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colo-Colo are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.00 for Palestino. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +44.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Colo-Colo vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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