Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Ullern vs Union Carl Berner

Ullern vs Union Carl Berner Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Ullern

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Carl Berner

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.3%0-27.2%0-34.8%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.9%1-19.6%1-29.5%1-36.3%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.2%2-16.4%2-26.3%2-34.2%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.4%3-12.8%3-22.8%3-31.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 49.5% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 61.9% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.9%

A 50% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ullern1.3

Union Carl Berner2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ULLERN · PPG 0.50

UNION CARL BERNER · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.66 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ullern (H) 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union Carl Berner (A) 49.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ullern face Union Carl Berner in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ullern a 29% chance, the draw 22% and Union Carl Berner 50%, so Union Carl Berner are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ullern and 2.0 for Union Carl Berner (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ullern are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Union Carl Berner.

Ullern vs Union Carl Berner Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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