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Asker vs Vålerenga II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Asker

PPG 2.57 · HOME

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vålerenga II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.9% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.5%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.9%1-12.0%1-21.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.1%2-14.4%2-22.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-16.5%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-021.4%4+-123.2%4+-212.6%4+-34.6%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% 82.0% 1.22 -8.3%

Draw 16.5% 15.4% 6.50 +4.3%

Away win 8.4% 14.3% 7.00 -24.7%

Over 2.5 80.9% 87.7% 1.14 -7.8%

Over 3.5 59.9% 75.2% 1.33 -20.3%

BTTS 63.6% 80.0% 1.25 -20.5%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% 46.9% 2.13 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.6%

H 75% / xG 4.4-1.1 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 7.1%

#2 4–0 6.5%

#3 3–1 6.5%

#4 5–1 6.2%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asker4.4

Vålerenga II1.1

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ASKER · PPG 2.57

VÅLERENGA II · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.28 for Home, form 2.57 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Asker (H) 75.2%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -8.3%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +4.3%

Vålerenga II (A) 8.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asker face Vålerenga II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asker a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Vålerenga II 8%, so Asker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Asker and 1.1 for Vålerenga II (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asker are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Vålerenga II. This match finished 5-4.

Asker vs Vålerenga II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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