Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Bærum vs KFUM II

Bærum vs KFUM II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 17:00

Bærum

PPG 2.14 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

KFUM II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.3%1-10.6%1-20.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-00.8%2-11.7%2-21.8%2-31.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.4%3-13.0%3-23.2%3-32.4%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-119.2%4+-221.0%4+-315.3%4+-4+13.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.2% — — —

Draw 14.7% — — —

Away win 14.1% — — —

Over 2.5 82.9% — — —

Over 3.5 72.7% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 57.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)5.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob70.3%

H 71% / xG 5.4-2.2 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–2 4.7%

#2 4–2 4.3%

#3 5–1✓ 4.3%

#4 4–1 4.0%

#5 5–3 3.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bærum5.4

KFUM II2.2

COMBINED 7.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.9% · O3.5 PROB 72.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BÆRUM · PPG 2.14

KFUM II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.17 for Home, form 2.14 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bærum (H) 71.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

KFUM II (A) 14.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bærum face KFUM II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bærum a 71% chance, the draw 15% and KFUM II 14%, so Bærum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.4 for Bærum and 2.2 for KFUM II (7.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-2. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bærum are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.00 for KFUM II. This match finished 5-1.

Bærum vs KFUM II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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