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Heming vs Asker Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Heming

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Asker

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.0%0-26.1%0-33.6%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.9%1-110.3%1-29.0%1-35.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.3%2-17.5%2-26.6%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.7%3-23.2%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 41.1% — — —

Over 2.5 62.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.7% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.6%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heming1.5

Asker1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HEMING · PPG 2.29

ASKER · PPG 2.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Heming (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Asker (A) 41.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Heming face Asker in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heming a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Asker 41%, so Asker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Heming and 1.8 for Asker (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heming are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 2.71 for Asker.

Heming vs Asker Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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