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SF Grei vs Bærum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

SF Grei

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bærum

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.89 for Away, form 1.00 vs 1.43

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.5%0-22.7%0-33.4%0-4+8.2%1 1-00.7%1-12.7%1-25.0%1-36.1%1-4+15.0%2 2-00.7%2-12.4%2-24.5%2-35.6%2-4+13.6%3 3-00.4%3-11.5%3-22.7%3-33.4%3-4+8.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-11.0%4+-21.9%4+-32.3%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.7% — — —

Draw 15.0% — — —

Away win 63.3% — — —

Over 2.5 82.1% — — —

Over 3.5 64.7% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 51.2% — — —

Away O1.5 86.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob69.4%

A 63% / xG 1.8-3.7 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.1%

#2 1–4 5.7%

#3 2–3 5.6%

#4 2–4 5.2%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SF Grei1.8

Bærum3.7

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SF GREI · PPG 1.00

BÆRUM · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.89 for Away, form 1.00 vs 1.43

Win probability 1X2

SF Grei (H) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bærum (A) 63.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SF Grei face Bærum in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SF Grei a 22% chance, the draw 15% and Bærum 63%, so Bærum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for SF Grei and 3.7 for Bærum (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SF Grei are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.43 for Bærum.

SF Grei vs Bærum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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