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Lokomotiv Oslo vs SF Grei Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Lokomotiv Oslo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

SF Grei

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.3%0-22.4%0-31.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-02.8%1-15.7%1-25.8%1-33.9%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-27.0%2-34.8%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.8%3-15.6%3-25.7%3-33.9%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-16.1%4+-26.2%4+-34.2%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 73.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.2% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 62.4% — — —

Away O1.5 54.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.6%

H 51% / xG 2.4-2.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv Oslo2.4

SF Grei2.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV OSLO · PPG 1.00

SF GREI · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv Oslo (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SF Grei (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv Oslo face SF Grei in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv Oslo a 51% chance, the draw 21% and SF Grei 28%, so Lokomotiv Oslo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lokomotiv Oslo and 2.0 for SF Grei (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv Oslo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.43 for SF Grei. This match finished 1-0.

Lokomotiv Oslo vs SF Grei Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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