Today / A. Petrolera vs I. Medelin

A. Petrolera vs I. Medelin Prediction

Sunday, April 19, 2026

A. Petrolera

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

I. Medelin

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.2%0-27.2%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.0%1-112.9%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.8%2-17.5%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.2%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 39.7% — — —

Over 2.5 44.3% — — —

Over 3.5 23.1% — — —

BTTS 49.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 15%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.7%

A 40% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 11.2%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Petrolera1.2

I. Medelin1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

A. PETROLERA · PPG 1.43

I. MEDELIN · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

A. Petrolera (H) 33.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

I. Medelin (A) 39.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Petrolera face I. Medelin on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Petrolera a 33% chance, the draw 27% and I. Medelin 40%, so I. Medelin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for A. Petrolera and 1.3 for I. Medelin (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Petrolera are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.13 for I. Medelin.

A. Petrolera vs I. Medelin Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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