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Independiente de La Chorrera vs Herrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Apertura · Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 01:00

Independiente de La Chorrera

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Herrera

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-14.1%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.0%1-18.6%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.1%3-16.2%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-15.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 16.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 27%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 63% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 3–0 10.1%

#4 1–1 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente de La Chorrera2.1

Herrera0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DE LA CHORRERA · PPG 1.38

HERRERA · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente de La Chorrera (H) 62.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Herrera (A) 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente de La Chorrera face Herrera in Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente de La Chorrera a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Herrera 16%, so Independiente de La Chorrera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Independiente de La Chorrera and 0.6 for Herrera (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente de La Chorrera are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.38 for Herrera.

Independiente de La Chorrera vs Herrera Prediction— Panama - Liga Panameña de Fútbol

Match Preview & Prediction

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