Today / Tivoli Gardens vs Dunbeholden

Tivoli Gardens vs Dunbeholden Prediction

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026

Tivoli Gardens

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Dunbeholden

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-110.9%0-24.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.8%1-113.2%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-18.0%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.6%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% — — —

Draw 29.5% — — —

Away win 27.3% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 16.1% — — —

BTTS 41.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob41.4%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–0✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tivoli Gardens1.2

Dunbeholden0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TIVOLI GARDENS · PPG 1.53

DUNBEHOLDEN · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Tivoli Gardens (H) 43.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dunbeholden (A) 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tivoli Gardens face Dunbeholden on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tivoli Gardens a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Dunbeholden 27%, so Tivoli Gardens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tivoli Gardens and 0.9 for Dunbeholden (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tivoli Gardens are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.06 for Dunbeholden. This match finished 2-0.

Tivoli Gardens vs Dunbeholden Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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