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Universitario de Vinto vs Real Tomayapo Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 15 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 19:00

Universitario de Vinto

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Tomayapo

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.7%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-17.0%1-23.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-18.0%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-19.7%4+-24.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.3% 62.5% 1.60 +4.5%

Draw 19.8% 24.4% 4.10 -11.3%

Away win 15.0% 22.7% 4.40 -20.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 70.4% 1.42 -10.4%

Over 3.5 41.1% 48.8% 2.05 -15.8%

BTTS 54.5% 69.0% 1.45 -21.0%

Home O1.5 63.4% 69.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Away O1.5 23.6% 39.2% 2.55 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 65% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–0 9.0%

#4 1–1 7.0%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitario de Vinto2.6

Real Tomayapo0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO · PPG 1.14

REAL TOMAYAPO · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.73 for Home, form 1.14 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Universitario de Vinto (H) 65.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +4.5%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.3%

Real Tomayapo (A) 15.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitario de Vinto face Real Tomayapo in Bolivia - Primera División on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitario de Vinto a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Real Tomayapo 15%, so Universitario de Vinto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Universitario de Vinto and 0.9 for Real Tomayapo (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitario de Vinto are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.00 for Real Tomayapo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.3%.

Universitario de Vinto vs Real Tomayapo Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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