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Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Always Ready Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Always Ready

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-117.5%0-213.5%0-36.9%0-4+3.8%1 1-07.2%1-111.1%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-02.3%2-13.5%2-22.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.5% 25.0% 4.00 -25.2%

Draw 25.9% 24.4% 4.10 +3.7%

Away win 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 2.5 45.9% 70.4% 1.42 -34.8%

Over 3.5 25.8% 48.8% 2.05 -28.3%

BTTS 48.0% 70.4% 1.42 -31.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 41.7% 2.40 -23.0%

Away O1.5 48.2% 69.0% 1.45 -30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.0%

A 60% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.5%

#2 0–2 13.5%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gualberto Villarroel SJ0.6

Always Ready1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ · PPG 1.29

ALWAYS READY · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.91 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gualberto Villarroel SJ (H) 14.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -25.2%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.7%

Always Ready (A) 59.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gualberto Villarroel SJ face Always Ready in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gualberto Villarroel SJ a 14% chance, the draw 26% and Always Ready 60%, so Always Ready are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ and 1.5 for Always Ready (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gualberto Villarroel SJ are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.00 for Always Ready. This match finished 2-3.

Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Always Ready Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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