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Bolívar vs Oriente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 13 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 00:00

Bolívar

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oriente Petrolero

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.0%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.0%1-15.8%1-22.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.3%2-18.3%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.8%3-17.8%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.3%4+-111.2%4+-24.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 85.5% 1.17 -20.9%

Draw 16.8% 15.4% 6.50 +5.5%

Away win 15.6% 9.3% 10.75 +40.6%

Over 2.5 65.2% 82.0% 1.22 -20.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 65.4% 1.53 -34.2%

BTTS 53.1% 67.6% 1.48 -21.4%

Home O1.5 73.8% 85.5% 1.17 -13.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 31.3% 3.20 -26.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 0.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 68% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 4–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolívar2.8

Oriente Petrolero0.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLÍVAR · PPG 2.17

ORIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.11 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bolívar (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -20.9%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +5.5%

Oriente Petrolero (A) 15.6%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +40.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolívar face Oriente Petrolero in Bolivia - Primera División on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolívar a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Oriente Petrolero 16%, so Bolívar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Bolívar and 0.7 for Oriente Petrolero (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolívar are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Oriente Petrolero.

Bolívar vs Oriente Petrolero Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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