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Real Tomayapo vs Real Oruro Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 23:30

Real Tomayapo

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Oruro

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.9%0-24.4%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.9%1-110.3%1-27.6%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.5%3-15.2%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.4%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 54.6% 1.83 -14.9%

Draw 23.4% 25.6% 3.90 -5.2%

Away win 30.1% 28.6% 3.50 +5.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 73.5% 1.36 -13.5%

Over 3.5 40.7% 54.6% 1.83 -25.5%

BTTS 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 46.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 0.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Tomayapo1.7

Real Oruro1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL TOMAYAPO · PPG 1.50

REAL ORURO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Tomayapo (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -14.9%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.2%

Real Oruro (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Tomayapo face Real Oruro in Bolivia - Primera División on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Tomayapo a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Real Oruro 30%, so Real Tomayapo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Tomayapo and 1.5 for Real Oruro (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Tomayapo are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Real Oruro.

Real Tomayapo vs Real Oruro Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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