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Aurora vs Bolívar Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 14 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:30

Aurora

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bolívar

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.5%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.8%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.7%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 27.6% — — —

Over 2.5 50.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 54.2% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.2%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora1.4

Bolívar1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 2.00

BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 45.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bolívar (A) 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Bolívar in Bolivia - Primera División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Bolívar 28%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Aurora and 1.1 for Bolívar (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Bolívar. This match finished 2-4.

Aurora vs Bolívar Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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